China: one plan away from the top

XULIO RIOS

From October 20 to 23, the CPC Central Committee will hold a plenary session that, as anticipated, will focus on the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), the strategic document that should guide China's course in the next five years.

Typically, between congresses, the fourth plenary sessions focus on, among other things, the preparation of strategic policies, establishing long-term objectives but also emphasizing the dual focus of strengthening Party leadership.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is now coming to an end, China has continued to advance, even weathering the trade and technology war with some ease, demonstrating that it can no longer be easily intimidated (rare earths have become its main bargaining chip with Washington). Chinese manufacturing output accounts for more than 35% of the world's total, and it is catching up with the US in every field and is already a world leader in some. China is approaching the top.

The Trump administration appears to have understood this, and it is possible that, following the meetings held in Geneva, London, Stockholm, and Madrid, this will sooner rather than later result in a trade agreement, although strategic tensions remain.

At the domestic level, the challenges are easily identifiable: a certain economic stagnation, particularly noticeable in domestic demand, high youth unemployment rates, stagnant average wages, the complex real estate sanitation, insufficient tax revenues, and local government debt; as well as significant structural problems such as the low birth rate. Additionally, over the course of the current plan, the level of support for the private sector has been clarified.

At the midpoint of the next five-year plan, a key year: 2027. Not only because of the centenary of the People's Liberation Army, but especially because of the celebration of the 21st Congress of the CCP. It's most likely that Xi Jinping will remain in power (he'll be 74), but he should then offer precise instructions on the leadership succession in 2032.

Expectations

The 15th Five-Year Plan must outline the roadmap and specific actions for the first five years of the journey toward 2035. It is expected to be the most ambitious and transformative plan to date, focused on overcoming current bottlenecks and laying the definitive foundations for modernization.

Conceptually, the guidelines for China's economic and social development in the coming period must represent a "decisive achievement toward socialist modernization." To achieve this, measures must represent significant turning points in three specific areas: economic progress, improving the quality of development and institutional structure; social stability, with a focus on shared prosperity and reducing inequality; and the reaffirmation of political leadership, with an emphasis on discipline and institutional improvement in governance.

Among the central issues, it is worth mentioning the importance ofaccelerate the aself-sufficiency ttechnological and the iinnovation of vanvant-garde, accentuating the enjib in technologies cwashed, reflection of an mprior maximzation of la cscience and tecology (sand wait a new wave of large state investments and incentives for the private sector to invest in basic and applied R&D).

A second axis refers us to the need to cconsolidate the cgrowth of alta cQuality and ttransformation of the msuit eeconomic mbeyond the indicative of the digits, betting on the cdomestic consumption and the madvanced manufacturing (ddevelopmentor green industries, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, etc.). Along the same lines,move forward in the ttransition vErde concrete objectives and policies to reach peak emissions before 2030.

In the social sphere, rreduce the dinequalities and fcomment on the «pprosperity ccommon» with a boost from the policies redistributive and improving sservices ppublic, represents an unavoidable imperative.

El dchallenge ddemographic will urge the adoption of bolder policies for addressing population aging orincrease the birth rate, but also ddevelop a sustainable pension system and provide the means for decent care to the needs of older people.

Therefore, andThe 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is expected to multiply efforts to overcome vulnerabilities, with special priority to technologicalco, the social, the environmental, that impulse that has persistently focused the management of the CCP for fifteen years.

Vision 2035

The 15th Five-Year Plan must be contextualized within the framework of Vision 2035, designed to fulfill the first stage of Xiism.

This formulation strategicwas conceived to convert the China into a comprehensively modernized socialist country by 2035. This goal is a crucial intermediate milestone on the path to "sdream c"Hino" of national rejuvenation, which is intended to be fully achieved by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China.

In essence, Vision 2035 is about a profound transformation of China in all areas, moving from being a society from middle-income to becoming a high-income country and a leading global power on several fronts. Considering its formal content, the preferred areas of attention are the ddevelopment eeconomic and innovation, the mmodernization of the ssystem of ggovernance, the binestar ssocial and the cquality of vida, the cvilification eecological and ssustainability, national security and sovereignty, cultural confidence and the loyalty of socialist values.

LChina's Vision 2035 is, so, A comprehensive and ambitious plan that seeks not only economic growth, but also a total modernization of society, technology, governance, and the environment, positioning China as a central and self-sufficient player on the world stage by the mid-21st century.

In keeping with this roadmap, the 15th Five-Year Plan will urge us to step on the accelerator in this direction, reaffirming structural priorities.

Xulio Ríos is Emeritus Advisor to the Chinese Policy Observatory.