Romania awaits new presidential elections in crisis

JAYRO SANCHEZ

Romania's Central Election Bureau (CEB), the institution responsible for ensuring the security of the national elections, has finally announced: Călin Georgescu will not be able to run as a candidate for the presidential elections on May 4.

The vote to elect the new head of state in Romania was due to take place at the end of last year, but the Constitutional Court decided to annul the results of the first round of elections, held in November, and to have them repeated in 2025.

Although the far-right independent leader was the clear winner of that round, obtaining 22,94% of the votes, the magistrates invalidated his victory. under section f of article 146 of the Constitution.

For that, They claimed that the process "was defective" throughout, and was characterized by "multiple irregularities and violations of electoral legislation that have distorted the free and fair nature of the vote expressed by citizens" and the equal opportunities of "the competitors."

Last-hour changes

These words are part of a second statement issued by the highest body of the Romanian judiciary 96 hours after endorsing the fairness of the elections, and were motivated by the presentation of several reports by the secret services to the Supreme Council for the Defense of the Fatherland on December 4.

The documents claim that the CEB suffered more than 85.000 cyberattacks by hackers serving a country whose name is not explicitly mentioned. Despite this, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not hesitate to publicly accuse Russia.

In addition, Romanian authorities and the European Commission are trying to determine whether TikTok allowed Georgescu to gain extra popularity and influence by camouflaging his political proposals with hashtags and strategic key phrases introduced in videos of influencers and ghost profiles.

If this were the case, the Chinese social network would have violated regulations registered in at least three chapters of the Digital Services Act (DSA), which was approved by the European Union (EU) Parliament in 2022 with the aim of combating disinformation.

Grained fire

Following the annulment of the vote, the Constitutional Court ordered former President Klaus Iohannis to remain in office until the end of spring, given the extraordinary circumstances facing the nation.

Having exhausted the legal period of his last mandate and without adequate legal instruments to enable him to validate his popular support, the former representative of the German-Romanian minority relied on a new executive formed by the "centre-left" Marcel Ciolacu after the parliamentary elections in December to govern.

However, three weeks after Cabinet spokesman Mihai Constantin announced the date for a repeat presidential election, a bloc formed by the far-right opposition Alliance for the Union of Romanians (PAPUR), SOS Romania and the Party of Young People (POT) tabled a parliamentary motion of no confidence against Iohannis.

The day before the debate began, the man who was mayor of Sibiu until 2014 resigned. He justified his decision by saying that he wanted to "spare citizens" from an "unnecessary and negative development" of the crisis, but many Romanians jokingly commented on social media that he intended to leave on his own to avoid loss of lifetime benefits from the position that would have led to his dismissal.

It is true that Iohannis has aborted with this gesture the great symbolic victory that the extremists would have achieved by overthrowing him. However, the ultra-conservatives still have the support of a large part of the citizenry, who are fed up with the corruption scandals that plague the management of traditional political parties and who do not understand why they have not been given serious and convincing explanations for the cancellation of the elections.

Survivors

Former Senate President, right-wing Ilie Bolojan, has taken over as interim head of state until 4 May. Meanwhile, Romania's various political forces are reorganising themselves for the elections.

The ruling coalition, made up of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the National Liberal Party (PNL), the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) and the Parliamentary Group of National Minorities, will unite around the old traditionalist leader Crin Antonescu to win the presidency of the Republic.

For its part, the Union Save Romania (USR) will support the conservative Elena Lasconi, who was close behind Georgescu with 19,18% of the votes in the cancelled round.

As for the far right, it has been dealt a severe blow. Following the outbreak of violent protests in the centre of Bucharest on Sunday evening, the popular candidate yesterday appealed against the decision of the CEB to remove him from the race for the head of state.

It is unlikely that the group will change its mind about the far-right leader's refusal to "fulfil his obligation to defend democracy," although it can revoke its ban within 48 hours.

In this situation, PAPUR, POT and SOS Romania will have to present their own candidates or form a joint alliance, a very complex political project to concoct in such a short time. In any case, if Georgescu does not manage to attend in person, his support will be decisive for his counterparts.

Between Europe and sovereignty

All presidential candidates face a difficult campaign in which they will have to take advantage of the climate of unrest and indignation caused by the cancellation of the previous elections.

The main underlying issue that will be raised is the struggle between sovereignty and Europeanism. The SPD, the PNL and the UMDR are the hinges of the old establishment Romanian, and want the country to complete its integration into the US-led and US-controlled Euro-Atlantic axis.

PAPUR moves slyly between criticising Washington and Brussels' policies and its relative condescension towards some of their proposals, imitating the attitude of sceptical cooperation that Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has been using with the EU for years.

The position of POT, whose president, Anamaria Gavrilă, is a former PAPUR activist, is similar, although it was the first organisation to support Georgescu's candidacy last year.

He is in favour of making the Romanian state neutral in the Ukrainian conflict, but Russia itself rejects that the candidate is a close ally of President Vladimir Putin's government. However, the leader of SOS Romania, Diana Șoșoacă, does seem to be more valued by Moscow.

The defense of "democracy"

The Constitutional Court banned in October the extremist's participation in the presidential elections due to her lack of adherence to the values ​​of Romanian law, including its status "as a member state of the EU and NATO", "guarantee" of its evolution "from the point of view of adherence to the principles of freedom, democracy and respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law."

The CEB has already explained that its veto of Georgescu is motivated by the Court's decision to cancel the previous elections. The Court, in turn, argued that it suspected that he had not complied with electoral regulations. But the investigation is still ongoing, so there is no conclusive evidence.

It is clear that the candidate has deep right-wing extremist beliefs, although his flattering comments about dictator Ion Antonescu or the leader of the interwar Romanian fascist movement, Corneliu Codreanu, do not seem to have worried the EU or his Romanian "friends" much until recently.

His unforgivable crimes are: being Eurosceptic and "pro-Russian", and wanting to withdraw Romanian aid to Ukraine.

The foundations of misery

Until a few months ago, Georgescu was a politician who was relatively unknown to the vast majority of Romanians. If he has become popular, it is not only because of his TikTok videos, but because of the inability of traditional statesmen to generate prosperity and well-being in the country.

Romania is one of the poorest and most backward states in Europe. In 2023, its GDP per capita was 17.020 euros per year, reflecting the low standard of living of Romanians. Its average salary, at 17.602 euros per year, is also one of the lowest in the region.

Of the 27 EU members, Romania is the second poorest, behind only Bulgaria. According to the World Bank, in 2021, 21% of its citizens were at risk of falling into poverty.

In 2020 alone, 3.987.093 people, representing 20% of its inhabitants, emigrated to other parts of the continent due to the poor economic and social conditions in which they lived.

A new era spoiled

Although most Romanians welcomed the fall of Nicolae Ceaușescu's dictatorship in late 1989, the democratic regime established after his overthrow has failed to significantly improve their material living conditions.

As in many other Balkan countries, the economic recipes applied by American neoliberal theorists during the 1990s only succeeded in exacerbating the structural problems of the Romanian economy.

Perhaps that is why there are people, especially among immigrant communities, who speak with nostalgia of the few and relative security – in terms of employment, for example – that the autocracy was able to offer them.

The harshness of the contemporary world

It has been 36 years since Bucharest abandoned the path of socialism, and 18 since it joined the EU. However, the consequences are not very visible to the average citizen.

The public health system has well-trained doctors, but hospital facilities and equipment are poor due to lack of ministerial funding, so most Romanians have to bear the cost of additional private insurance.

Rural populations are the hardest hit by poverty, especially in Western Moldova, located in the north-east of the country. Children from families living there are forced to work with their parents in hard agricultural labour, and their access to education is precarious.

El think tanks Funcas states that the national school dropout rate among young people aged 18 to 24 is 16,6%, being the highest in the entire European UnionThe data varies widely between regions, with the least worrying being those relating to the capital.

People living in large cities such as Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca and Iasi have the best prospects for their educational and professional future. However, some of their suburbs lack adequate lighting and are plagued by various problems related to inequality and social exclusion.

The same as always

Throughout the three decades of democratic government in Romania, power has been in the hands of the SPD or the various right-wing parties that have contested the parliamentary elections held every four years.

Their political programmes have never differed much. Even now, Prime Minister Ciolacu, a progressive in word but a conservative, de facto, seeks to unify or reduce ministerial staff, attract foreign private investment and reduce public spending.

He will only be able to do that if he survives the country's severe institutional crisis. Now that Iohannis has left the scene, the pressure from the far-right on the coalition of social democrats, liberals, Hungarians and other national minorities will increase exponentially.

Waiting for spring

The real secret of Georgescu's success is that he has been able to establish a connection with the people, and in particular with the youth, in a much more skillful and natural way than other leaders. And without having any unfinished business with the AUR party, from which he ran for prime minister in 2020 and 2021 before its president, George Simion, expelled him for his radicalism.

Without a real political force fighting for the working class and the future of Romanian youth, a large part of the population has come to consider the ultra-conservative parties acceptable for their sovereignist positions and their promises of change and the extermination of corruption.

Georgescu is the candidate who has shown himself to be the most popular among large sectors of society. Whether or not he is prepared to implement his proposals, it is clear that he represents a threat to the EU and its local "allies". His candidacy for the new presidential elections could lead to an infinite number of scenarios.

To narrow it down, several key questions need to be answered. The most important is whether Georgescu will be able to run again. If he were to do so and win, what would happen on NATO's eastern flank? How would the EU react? And if he were to be banned, what would be the reaction of those who voted for him? What would happen?

Jayro sanchez he is a journalist