Six points for navigating the turmoil in Iran

12 min read VIJAY PRASHAD 0 comments

VIJAY PRASHAD

Iran is in chaos. Protests of varying scales have erupted across the country, with escalating violence leading to the deaths of both demonstrators and police officers. What began as work stoppages and protests against inflation has coalesced around a range of discontented groups, including women and young people frustrated by a system unable to provide for their basic needs. Iran has been subjected to a prolonged economic siege and has been directly attacked by Israel and the United States, not only within its borders but also throughout West Asia (including its diplomatic enclaves in Syria). This economic warfare waged by the United States has created the conditions for this unrest, but the unrest itself is not directed at Washington, but rather at the government in Tehran.

There are reports, such as the one published in October 2025 in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz about the “Israeli influence operations aimed at installing Reza Pahlavi as Shah of Iran,” which indicate that Israeli intelligence services have a role in the protests, and the United States has said openly The protesters were threatened with being bombed by the government if violence escalates. Last year, protests erupted at twelve oil refineries in South Pars, where 5,000 contract workers from the Bushehr Gas Refinery Workers Union marched with their families on December 9 in Asaluyeh to demand higher wages and better working conditions. When the workers took their struggle to the National Assembly in Tehran, calling for an end to the contract labor system, the Israelis and the United States seized upon these sincere protests to try to transform a legitimate struggle into a potential regime-change operation.

To understand what is happening, here are six points of historical significance offered for discussion. Since 1979, Iran has played a very important role in the movement beyond monarchies in the Arab and Muslim world and has been a major supporter of the Palestinian struggle. Iran is no stranger to foreign interference, dating back to British control of Iranian oil since 1901, the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 that divided Iran into spheres of influence, the 1921 coup that placed Reza Khan on the throne, the 1953 coup that installed his son, Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi, on the throne, and then the hybrid war against the Iranian Revolution from 1979 to the present. Here are the six points:

The Iranian Revolution of 1978–79 overthrew the regime of Shah Reza Pahlavi and, due to the power of the religious clergy and their political organizations, led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic in April 1979, with the Constitution of the Islamic Republic coming into effect in December 1979. Other currents within the revolution (from the communist left to liberals) were largely marginalized and, in some cases, even repressed. The March 1979 protests in Tehran, coinciding with International Women's Day, erupted in response to restrictions on women's rights (particularly the mandatory hijab policy), forcing the government to concede to the protesters' demands. However, this victory was short-lived, as a law mandating the wearing of the hijab was passed in 1983.
The revolution followed Zia ul-Haq's military coup in Pakistan in 1977, the Saur Revolution in Afghanistan (August 1978), the creation of the Yemeni Socialist Party (October 1978), which brought the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen into the Soviet sphere of influence and sparked the war between North and South Yemen (February-March 1979), and Saddam Hussein's rise to power in Iraq in July 1979. These events triggered a series of political changes throughout Southwest and Central Asia. Some of these developments (Pakistan, Iraq) offered advantages to the United States, while others (Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen) ran counter to its objectives in the region. Very quickly, the United States sought to capitalize on these advantages by attempting to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran, the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
US pressure on these processes led to a situation of war in all three countries: the United States and its Gulf allies urged Iraq to invade Iran without provocation in September 1980, starting a war that lasted until 1988; the Gulf Arab states urged North Yemen to invade South Yemen after the assassination of Salim Rubaya Ali (a Maoist who was negotiating the unification of the two Yemens); finally, in Afghanistan, the United States began funding the mujahideen to launch a campaign of assassinations against members of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan. Iran, Afghanistan, and Yemen saw their social projects undermined by attacks from abroad. Afghanistan was plunged into more than forty years of terrible violence and war, even though the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan survived for eighteen years; the Marxist government of South Yemen lasted until 1990, but was a pale shadow of its former self; Iran, for its part, saw its Islamic Republic survive a harsh policy of sanctions after the end of the war with Iraq (in 1988).
The Islamic Republic faced several major and consecutive challenges:

The most important one came from US imperialismThe United States and Israel not only fully supported the Iraq War but also backed the efforts of the old Iranian elites to restore their dominance and supported Israeli attempts to undermine the Islamic Republic (including direct attacks on Iran, sabotage operations, and the assassinations of key figures in the scientific and military professions). It is the United States and Israel that have systematically attempted to erode Iran's power in the region, beginning with the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, the brutal attack on Hezbollah during the Israeli-Palestinian genocide and the assassination of Syed Hassan Nasrallah in 2024, and the overthrow of the Syrian government in December 2024 with the installation of the former head of Al-Qaeda as president in Damascus.

The ancient Iranian elitesLed first by the Shah until his death in 1980 and then by his son, the so-called Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the Shah and the United States joined forces to restore their rule. It is important to understand that although the Shah occupied the Peacock Throne from 1941, he was forced to accept a democratic government between 1951 and 1953, which was overthrown by Western intelligence services. The Shah was then encouraged to exercise absolute rule from 1953 until the 1978-79 revolution. The Shah's faction has consistently sought to return to power in Iran. While the 2009 Green Movement had a very small monarchist element, it represented the ruling classes who wanted political reforms in opposition to the more populist presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It is telling that the United States "chosen" the Shah's son, who lives in Los Angeles, as the figurehead of this uprising.

The limitations of the transformative social agenda The republic's legacy was evident in its tolerance of sectors of the old elite, allowing them to retain their properties and thus enabling the formation of a stratified class system that benefited both these property owners and an emerging middle class. Following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in June 1989 and the end of the Iran-Iraq War, the government adopted many of the International Monetary Fund's structural adjustment policies, which, in one form or another, persisted for decades (this policy was championed by Mohsen Nourbaksh, who served as Minister of Economy from 1989 to 1994 and then as Governor of the Central Bank from 1994 to 2003). In 1979, the economy was not organized according to socialist principles, but it had established a significant role for the state and public planning due to the demands of the wartime economy and a commitment to Islamic social welfare. Nourbaksh was unable to completely dismantle the state, but he did implement monetary and banking reforms, as well as cautiously integrating Iran into the global economy. Class divergence and the hardships faced by most Iranians increased due to the combined impact of US and European sanctions, US and Israeli military threats (which have led to high military spending in Iran, still around 2,5% of GDP, but significantly lower than the 12% of GDP during the Shah's reign), and the neoliberal policies implemented by increasingly neoliberal government finance ministers (such as Ali Tayebnia from 2013 to 2017 and Ali Madanizadeh from 2025). It is this limitation imposed by the Islamic Republic that has triggered cycles of economic protests: 2017-2018 (regarding inflation and subsidy cuts), 2019 (regarding the increase in fuel prices), 2025 (by bakers), and 2025-26 (due to rampant inflation and the collapse of the economy). rial Iranian).
While the current protests are largely driven by a record-high rial-to-US dollar exchange rate and a 60% food inflation rate, the shift from labor strikes in South Pars to coordinated urban violence points to a deeper level of intervention. The administration has favored sectors of the import-export industry, which have operated within the context of sanctions, to aid commodity exporters at the expense of importers—a situation that is not easily rectified. However, the abrupt currency collapse, between 30% and 40%, is a classic indicator of external financial manipulation. Thus, what began as a protest by business owners against the central bank without interference soon transformed into a violent, top-down attack on the state apparatus. The “protests” escalated overnight from peaceful gatherings to high-intensity urban sabotage that resulted in the deaths of approximately 100 law enforcement officers. Reports indicated that some officers were burned alive, a security officer was beheaded, and a medical clinic was set ablaze, killing a nurse, among other incidents. The use of small arms at close range against civilians further suggests an attempt to maximize internal tensions and provide a pretext for foreign intervention. The geopolitical orchestration behind the chaos became undeniable when the U.S. State Department and Mossad openly applauded the violence in real time. Once the authorities shut down internet access, the protests lost significant momentum, casting doubt on the movement's spontaneity and lending credence to the theory that a destabilization strategy is underway, seeking to capitalize on the current international situation.
The opposition has taken to the streets, but acknowledges it lacks the necessary strength to seize power. There are reports of US and Israeli interference, and it doesn't help the opposition that the Shah's son has taken credit for the protests and considers himself their beneficiary. With Trump at the helm of hyper-imperialism and Israel in the midst of what it sees as endless victories, it's impossible to know what these dangerous cabals will do. As the mobilizations lose momentum, which they will, the US and Israel could exploit the situation to attack Tehran and other cities with greater force than in June 2025. This should be a cause for concern not only for the Iranian people, the vast majority of whom do not want an attack on their country, but also for the peoples of the Global South, who will become the next target after Venezuela and Iran.

The population faces real problems, but these will not be solved by a hyper-imperialist air campaign by the United States and Israel. Iranians will have to solve their own problems. The sanctions regime and threats of violence do nothing to help them do so. It is easy to say “solidarity with the Iranians” in the West, where protesters are beaten and even killed for their support of the Palestinians and their outrage at anti-immigration policies; it seems much more difficult to say “end the sanctions” and thus allow the Iranian people to breathe toward their own future.