Another Philippine War?

XULIO RIOS

Today, leaving aside Taiwan, the deterioration of the relationship between Beijing and Manila represents the main focus of tension in the South China Sea. dDuring former President Rodrigo Duterte's six-year term, the situation remained relatively stable and no major disputes occurred. However, since Marcos Jr. came to power in June 2022, disputes have frequently arisen, from Ren'ai Jiao to Huangyan Dao. 

Recently, China denounced the deployment of a medium-range missile system by the United States in the Philippines. Is the first time the United States deployed a system of this type abroad and in the Asia-Pacific since the end of the Cold War. Ello threatens break the strategic balance in the region. Without a doubt, Washington intends to send a very clear message to China, which can be contextualized in the puzzle designed to restrain its expansion.

Abouts disputes in the sea from China Southern, Beijing claims to continue committeda to resolve disagreements with the Philippine side through consultations, on an equal footing and on the basis of compliance with previous compromises. China's accusatory finger points at the US, which would orchestrate the Philippines' position behind the scenes.

EIt is well known that the March from China Southern is a strategically important maritime area connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Si Japan and the United States manage to advance in "security cooperation" with the Philippines, it is predictable that This means more headaches for China. If Japan, the United States and other countries help improve capabilities military of the Philippines, it is likely that this results in a significant increase in tension in the area. We are seeing it.

The previous Duterte administration in the Philippines maintained a dovish attitude toward China and was reluctant to strengthen security ties with the United States. The Marcos administration opted for the opposite direction, increasingly aligning its policy with that of the United States, deepening the disputes. Marcos added four bases to the list of five bases in the Philippines available to the US military, included two in the northern Philippines, near Taiwan.

Additionally, the Philippine and Japanese governments are accelerating negotiations for a Reciprocal Access Agreement. which will make it easier to send troops to each other. If concluded, cooperative activities between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine Army, such as training and exercises, will advancezaran significantly.

The Philippines and the US China Containment Strategy

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. invited to attend the first summit between Japan, the United States and the Philippines held in April of this year. The meeting materialized the formal alignment of the Philippines with the Japan-United States effort, signaling a qualitative change in regional cooperation.

Japan and the United States have established several multilateral cooperation frameworks, such as the United States-Japan-Australia (AUKUS), the United States-Japan-Australia-India (Quad), and the United States-Japan-Korea, to counter the challenges posed by China. . The objective is to ensure regional strategic hegemony at all costs.

Japan, the United States and the Philippines also stressed el commitment to deepen cooperation in maritime security. In addition to supplying vital equipment such as coast guard vessels, the United States and Japan have revealed joint initiatives to organize trilateral exercises involving the coast guard of lthe three states. These exercises aim to strengthen the competence of the Philippine Coast Guard, on whom will fall the dubious merit of assuming the lead of operations.

Additionally, Japan and the United States have issued cooperation guidelines to facilitate Philippine defense modernization. These cover expanded cooperation with other partner countries, along with joint exercises "humanitarian assistance and disaster relief" that involve the three armies, as well as joint naval training.

Ethis last May A meeting was held in Hawaii between the defense ministers of Japan, the United States, the Philippines and Australia. In said meeting, the four ministers They combined criteria to establish a common front whose main objective is China.

China and the US at the Shangri-La Dialogue

At the end of May, China and the United States held the second round of maritime affairs consultations. Little more came out of it than the expected reaffirmation of the respective positions regarding territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. Its context, Chinese discomfort over what it calls an increase in “provocations” from the Philippines and the growing US encouragement to Manila persists in this attitude towards the China and attract others to that stage countries of ASEAN.

Greater cooperation between the United States and its ally, the Philippines, both separated by 8.000 kilometers of distance, will strengthen the US military presence in East Asia.And with it, the possibilities of creating new security frameworks that protect US hegemony in the region against China increase in parallel. If anything China does is “coercion”, nothing the US does can be described as such….

At Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a major annual security forum, Marcos Jr. said the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries had a vision of “peace, stability and prosperity” in the South China Sea, but that this was being undermined by other actors, without naming China.. For Washington, China’s “repeated obstruction of the exercise of freedom of navigation on the high seas by Philippine vessels and disruption of supply lines to Second Thomas Shoal”, represents an attempt to “unilaterally change the status quo by force".

While one after another the proposals for economic integration in the region led by the US fail, another trend seems to show the security initiatives that exalt Washington's role as guarantor of the "regional peace».

Are the own actions de China weary that han pushed to the Philippines on the side of the US in what it would mean a big strategic mistake capital letter or are the US actions in the region designed to exacerbate disputes and use them to argue alliances to contain China that are on the way to promoting that incident that serves as an excuse to take China to war?

ASEAN countries have a lot to say in this regard. Deactivating polarization by promoting dialogue and avoiding choosing sides seems like the most rational option. If China complements it with an acceleration of negotiations on the code of conduct in the South China Sea, the US strategy would be more likely to fail.

Xulio Ríos He is an emeritus advisor to Chinese Policy Observatory.