Approaching the abyss of war

PASCUAL SERRANO

I don't know if we are aware, but, with the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, the world is in the most warlike moment since the Second World War. It is not my statement, it is the annual global peace study of the Institute for Economics and Peace. According to their analysis, the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine were the main drivers of the global decline in terms of peace, as battle deaths reached 162.000 in 2023, this is the second highest figure in the last 30 years, and the Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza accounted for almost three-quarters of the deaths. There are currently 56 war conflicts in the world, the most since World War II. Besides, 92 countries are currently involved in conflicts beyond their borders, more than at any time since the creation of what they call the Global Peace Index, which this year has little peace.

More numbers. The global economic impact of violence in 2023 was €17,5 trillion in 2023, 13,5% of global GDP. If we do the division it comes out to 2.187 euros per inhabitant. In fact, militarization registered its largest annual increase since the creation of this index, with 108 countries increasingly militarized; it has been precisely the NATO members that have been most advanced in increasing their military spending.

But more serious It is still the apparent Western decision to continue beating the drums of war. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on June 5 Germany needs to strengthen its armed forces, the Bundeswehr, so that they are operational before the end of the decade. “We must be ready for war in 2029,” the defence minister said during a question-and-answer session in the lower house of the German parliament, the Bundestag.

That same day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged that his government would support the defense industry and urged closer cooperation between Europe's producers.

"Today we see more clearly than ever how important it is to have a European and German defence industry that can continuously produce all major types of weapons and the necessary ammunition," he said at the opening of the International Aerospace Exhibition in Berlin.

Also this June, the Defense Ministers of the NATO countries reviewed the proposal for the first update in more than ten years of their nuclear deterrence plans to “adapt them to the current security situation.” as explained by its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg. The review will be formalized at NATO's 75th anniversary summit on July 9-10 in Washington. The agreements in force by which the United States has nuclear weapons in Europe and several countries offer air means to, if necessary, transport them, were recalled. The Netherlands announced last week that its new F-35 aircraft have already obtained the necessary certification to assume the functions of transporting nuclear weapons, replacing the F-16.

In the United States, a report by a bipartisan Congressional Commission was recently made public under the title America's Strategic Posture (The Strategic Posture of the United States) in which, over a period of 160 pages, It reviews everything from "U.S. nuclear weapons policy to military force structure and threats to strategic stability around the world, in order to prepare the United States."

Their conclusion is that “the geopolitical landscape has been fundamentally altered by the growing aggression of Russia and China, and that the United States must adjust its own strategic posture to protect its security and stability interests in the years ahead.”

Posing the simultaneous existence of Russia and China as aggressors and enemies to be defeated is an unprecedented scenario for American policy, one that not even the most audacious strategists like Henry Kissinger suggested.

The tone of the document, about which little has been said, is very worrying because it is based on the fact that the United States must expand its military power, in particular its “nuclear weapons modernization program,” in order to prepare for possible simultaneous wars with China. and Russia.

For this we find some very worrying specific recommendations. For example, the United States should deploy more nuclear warheads, more intercontinental cruise missiles, submarines with ballistic missiles, non-strategic (short-range) nuclear weapons, etc.

The insistence on involving China, a country that has not fired a single shot outside its borders in 36 years, is constant in American messages. “Beijing is an actor in this war. It helps Russia to maintain the war by being a threat to Europe. We have made it clear that we will take further action against the Chinese actors involved and we are in continuous consultation with our European colleagues. published in a tweet the American embassy in Bucharest.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, founded in 1947 in part to help the world avoid nuclear annihilation, established the Doomsday Clock to help the public understand the seriousness of the risks we face. National security experts adjust the clock based on how far or close we are from “midnight,” that is, extinction. Today, these experts have thought it appropriate set the clock just 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been in the nuclear age.

And for Europeans who did not see it coming or believe that it does not affect them yet, two examples: both Germany and the United Kingdom have already raised the need to reimpose compulsory military service.

"In an emergency, we need strong young men and women who can defend this country," said the German defence minister. He added that he therefore believed that a "new form of military service" was necessary, which "cannot be completely free of obligations." His ministry has already begun to explore potential models for compulsory military service.

Germany suspended conscription in 2011. About half of German citizens favor reintroducing it, according to a survey conducted in March by the Forsa research institute.

In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak He unexpectedly announced his commitment to recover compulsory military service for all young people—women and men— 18 years old. Under the new Compulsory National Service (which the UK, like most European countries, abandoned in the mid-12s), Britons who reach adulthood will have to work for XNUMX months for the Armed Forces, or one week a month for a year in community social services, which may also include medical emergencies. Sunak threatened sanctions to young people who refuse, such as withdrawing their driving license and closing their access to bank accounts.

There, a recent YouGov survey indicates that only 10% of young British people between 18 and 24 years old support Compulsory National Service, compared to 46% support from those over 65 years old, who are the core of the conservative electorate and those who go to the polls the most.

I just have to finish with the parable of the frog and the pot. He says that if you put a frog in a pot of boiling water, it senses the deadly temperature, immediately jumps out and manages to escape from the pot without getting burned. On the other hand, if it is inside the pot at room temperature and we heat it little by little, it does not perceive the danger or react, it ends up losing consciousness and dies from the heat.

Pascual Serrano He is a journalist and writer. His last book is "Forbidden to doubt. The ten weeks in which Ukraine changed the world”