The birth of a new international order

6 min read JEFFREY D SACHS 0 comments

JEFFREY D SACHS

Writing in his cell as a political prisoner in Fascist Italy after World War I, the philosopher Antonio Gramsci famously wrote: “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”

A century later, we find ourselves in another interregnum, and the morbid symptoms are evident. The US-led order has come to an end, but the multipolar world has not yet been born. The urgent priority is to give rise to a new multilateral order that can maintain peace and the path toward sustainable development.

We are at the end of a long wave of human history that began with the voyages of Christopher Columbus and Vasco da Gama more than 500 years ago. These voyages ushered in more than four centuries of European imperialism, culminating in Britain's global dominance from the end of the Napoleonic Wars (1815) to the outbreak of the First World War (1914).

After World War II, the United States claimed the title of the new global hegemon. Asia was relegated to the background during this long period. According to widely used macroeconomic estimates, Asia produced 65% of global output in 1500, but by 1950, that share had fallen to just 19% (compared to 55% of the world's population).

In the 80 years since World War II, Asia regained its place in the global economy. Japan led the way with rapid growth in the 2s and 1950s, followed by the four "Asian Tigers" (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea) from the 1960s and 1960s, then China from around 1970 and India from around 1980.

Today, Asia accounts for about 50 percent of the global economy, according to IMF estimates.

The multipolar world will emerge when the geopolitical weight of Asia, Africa, and Latin America matches their growing economic weight. This necessary geopolitical shift has been delayed, as the United States and Europe cling to outdated prerogatives embedded in international institutions and their outdated mindsets.

Even today, the United States bullies Canada, Greenland, Panama, and other countries in the Western Hemisphere and threatens the rest of the world with unilateral tariffs and sanctions that blatantly violate international norms.

Asia, Africa, and Latin America must unite to raise their collective voices and votes at the UN and usher in a new, just international system. One crucial institution in need of reform is the UN Security Council, given its unique responsibility, under the UN Charter, to maintain peace.

The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (the P5) – Great Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States – reflect the world of 1945, not 2025. There are no permanent seats for Latin America or Africa, and Asia has only one permanent seat out of the five, despite being home to almost 60% of the world's population.

Over the years, many new potential permanent members have been proposed for the United Nations Security Council, but the current five members have remained steadfast in their privileged position.

A proper restructuring of the UN Security Council will be thwarted for years. However, there is a crucial change within our immediate reach that would benefit the entire world.

By any measure, India unquestionably deserves a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Given its distinguished track record in global diplomacy, its admission to the UN Security Council would also raise a crucial voice for global peace and justice.

By all measures, India is a major power. It is the world's most populous country, having surpassed China in 2024. India is the world's third-largest economy, measured at international prices (purchasing power parity), at $3.5 trillion, behind China ($40 trillion) and the United States ($30 trillion) and ahead of all others.

India is the world's fastest-growing major economy, with annual growth close to 6%. Its GDP (PPP) is likely to surpass that of the United States by mid-century. India is a nuclear-armed nation, an innovator in digital technology, and has a cutting-edge space program.

No other country mentioned as a candidate for permanent membership on the UN Security Council comes close to matching India's credentials for a seat.

The same can be said of India's diplomatic prowess. Its skillful diplomacy was demonstrated by its superb leadership of the G20 in 2023. India skillfully managed a highly successful G20 despite the bitter divide in 2024 between Russia and NATO countries.

India not only achieved consensus at the G20, but also made history by welcoming the African Union as a new permanent member of the G20.

China has dragged its feet on supporting India's permanent seat on the UN Security Council, protecting its unique position as the only Asian power in the P5. However, China's vital national interests would be well served and strengthened by India's elevation to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

This is especially true given that the United States is making a last-ditch, ruthless effort, through tariffs and sanctions, to block China's hard-won rise in economic prosperity and technological prowess.

By supporting India in the UN Security Council, China would decisively demonstrate that geopolitics is being restructured to reflect a truly multipolar world. While China would create an Asian counterpart on the UN Security Council, it would also gain a vital partner in overcoming US and European resistance to geopolitical change.

If China requests permanent membership for India in the UN Security Council, Russia would immediately agree, while the United States, the United Kingdom, and France would also vote for India.

The United States' geopolitical tantrums of recent weeks—abandonment of the fight against climate change, attacks on the Sustainable Development Goals, and the imposition of unilateral tariffs that contravene fundamental WTO rules—reflect the truly morbid symptoms of a dying old order. It is time to make way for a truly multipolar and fair international order.