Trump's America: ecstasy or agony?

7 min read JOSEPH CAMILLERI

JOSEPH CAMILLERI

Trump's election victory is not the momentous or unexpected event that many have made it out to be. It is, however, an unequivocal sign of a society in slow decline in which frustration, anger and bewilderment are reaching epidemic proportions.

The inevitable question is: how did this man manage to be re-elected President of the United States?

This is, after all, a man who was twice impeached as president, who rejected the outcome of the previous election. He is known to have repeatedly lied to the electorate before, during and since his first presidential term. This is a man whose business dealings have long been under a cloud, and who is widely accused of deceit, abuse of power and sexual misconduct.

Some have tried to explain the result by pointing to the lackluster results of Kamala Harris's presidential bid. There is some truth in this.

Her campaign generated huge enthusiasm among the Democratic faithful, drew huge rallies and was a money-raising marvel. But when it came to issues that matter to many Americans — particularly the economy and immigration, and in the case of a minority, the administration’s unconditional support for Israel’s brutal aggression in Gaza and now Lebanon — Harris had very little to say.

The problem with this explanation of the election result is that Trump's political agenda was also a dead letter. Aside from his constant nonsense about the evils of immigration and his plans for mass deportations, his economic and foreign policy program was, to say the least, confusing.

The vote for Trump, apart from his army of fervent supporters, cannot be understood as a knowing approval of his plans or of the vulgarity of the man.

Trump's victory expresses, above all, a visceral disenchantment with the political and economic elites who have prospered while those at the bottom of the ladder struggle to stay afloat in body and soul.

The last reports of The U.S. Census Bureau and Food Security Bureau data show that in 2023, 42,8 million Americans were living in poverty and 47,4 million were living in food-insecure households.

The Biden years may have brought modest levels of economic growth and lower levels of unemployment, but for many these gains were offset by rising living expenses and wages unable to keep pace. poll of 2023 revealed that 78% of the American population was living paycheck to paycheck, and many were just one emergency away from living in poverty.

The reason for Trump's electoral appeal to a growing number of black and Hispanic voters is not hard to uncover. Food insecurity among black and Hispanic households is more than twice that of non-Hispanic white households.

And with these times of economic distress comes the knowledge that the rich are getting richer. The United States has greater wealth disparities than any other major developed economy.

In 2020, only one American had a net worth of more than $100.000 billion. Four years later there were ten. centimillionairesIn those four years, the combined wealth of those ten Americans had grown by 88% to $5,5 trillion.

Over the past three decades, America's richest families have seen their net worth rise significantly, while the poorest have seen their debts outstrip their assets. The richest 5% of Americans now own two-thirds of the country's wealth.

For African Americans, their life expectancy is even bleaker. Incarceration rates They tell a chilling story. Although African Americans make up 13% of the total population, they account for 37% of those incarcerated and nearly half (48,3%) of those sentenced to life and near-life terms nationwide. The number of those arrested in 2018 stood at 2,8 million, more than double the arrest rate for white Americans.

It is not surprising, then, that a large segment of the American population, especially the disadvantaged and discriminated against, increasingly distrusts powerful institutions. A succession of polls They point to a steady loss of public confidence in the political class and the media.

The Trump phenomenon is partly a reflection of this long-term trend: an attempt to capture the rising tide of public resentment and turn it into a strategy for winning votes.

But the ecstasy of victory will be short-lived, while the agony of the decline and fall of the American dream will prove long-lasting.

It is not just the agony of the United States, it is the agony of the world. Because this is an America that has not yet reconciled itself with its decline.

There is little sign that the second Trump administration will be any more adept than its predecessors at adapting to the profound economic and geopolitical transformation underway.

Asia’s resurgence as a pillar of the global economy now encompasses much more than just China. By 2023, China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam will average GDP growth rates of between 5,0% and 6,5%, suggesting that the trend of recent years has yet to run its course.

The results of the American economy are equally surprising. In 2000, the US share of total world GDP (based on PPP) was 24%. This percentage fell to just over 20% in 2010. In 2018, it was just over 15%, and currently stands at just below 15%.

And now we see the growing challenge posed by China to the supremacy of the US dollar, a challenge that is accelerating with the active support of Russia and the major economies of the Global South. We must not forget that dollar supremacy has been the cornerstone of US global hegemony.

The confidence that economic agents have placed in the US dollar since the 1940s is beginning to erode. A key factor is the exponential growth of US public debt. By 2023, it will reach more than $33,4 trillion, nine times the country's debt in 1990.

This looming challenge to American economic dominance was barely mentioned during the course of the election campaign. There is no reason to think that any of the economic measures that the incoming Trump administration will introduce, including the continued use of tariffs and sanctions against adversaries, will halt, let alone reverse, these long-term trends.

The steady decline of US hegemonic power is equally evident when it comes to the projection of military power. Technological prowess and soaring levels of military spending culminating in the staggering figure of 1,94 trillions of dollars The budgetary resources available to the Department of Defense in fiscal year 2024 do not easily translate into military victory or political control.

The costly war on terror, the disastrous war in Iraq, the protracted and punishing conflict in Afghanistan, the terrible mess in Libya and Syria, and the fruitless show of force against Iran through its proxy Israel all attest to the fragility of American power.

Some believe Trump is less inclined to participate in or support far-flung military expeditions and more inclined to downplay military alliances. To what extent this will come true, however, remains to be seen.

It is conceivable that a Trump administration would make some effort to end the Ukraine war. But even if an agreement on some kind of ceasefire is reached in 2025, it does not follow that NATO’s steady advance on Russia’s doorstep will be slowed, let alone reversed.

The upshot of all this is that wild promises of “making America great again” are likely to distract the United States from addressing the central question of our time: Is the United States prepared to accept that its unchallenged economic and military dominance is coming to an end?

Failure to confront this reality will only prolong and aggravate the agony of the United States and the rest of the world.