Palestinians celebrate the destruction of an Israeli tank next to the Gaza Strip fence this Saturday, October 7. Photo: Yousef Masoud
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Israel-Hamas, from one false status quo to another?

3 min read EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON

EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON

The dazzling attack by Hamas against Israel constitutes a resounding qualitative change with respect to what has been seen until now. The Palestinian resistance organization that governs the Gaza Strip has killed more than a hundred Israelis and taken dozens prisoner, including soldiers and civilians. His release will be negotiated as an exchange in exchange for thousands of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel, probably addressing the lifting of the blockade on the Strip.

Saturday's attack by the al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, is unprecedented and will undoubtedly have repercussions on the changing status quo that has prevailed until now. The militants have shown an advanced capacity that no one attributed to them and that reveals a notable development and creativity in their military power, which has surprised Israeli political and military officials and the population of the Jewish state.

It is actually wrong to speak of a status quo in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. It is true that the Israeli authorities often use that expression, but it is no less true that these authorities change the status quo on a daily, persistent and decisive basis.

For example, in relation to the Esplanade of the Mosques of Jerusalem, where in ancient times the Jewish temple was located and today the Dome of the Rock and the al-Aqsa mosque are. In fact, the trigger for this war has been precisely the maneuvers carried out by Israel to consolidate the occupation of the Esplanade, allowing hundreds of fanatical Jews to enter the area every day and even practice Talmudic rites that they record and spread on social networks.

These actions violate the status quo that Israel claims to maintain while the Western community washes its hands. In reality, the status quo changes constantly and from day to day in favor of Israel. The Hamas leadership has said that this Saturday's attack is precisely a response to what is happening on the Esplanade of the Mosques.

It is still early to know how the attack will affect the changing status quo, which will depend on several factors, mainly the political interests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is in a big legal mess with the open intention of changing the powers of the Supreme Court so that he can escape the negative consequences of his corruption trial.

We also see there that, although Netanyahu assures that he wants to maintain the status quo in relation to the balance of powers within Israel, the reality is that everything he does goes in the opposite direction, as is also the case with the provocations in the holy places of Jerusalem. .

A possible consequence will be that the Palestinian armed factions operating in the West Bank, and which have numerous followers, will be stronger from now on.

Although different factors surrounding the crisis are likely to influence its development, Netanyahu may be tempted to take it to its extremes, especially if we consider that his government has no shortage of extremely radical ministers. As of today, Saturday, October 7, Israel still does not have the upper hand, so through military maneuvers it will try to reverse the situation.

The false status quo that reigned until now, according to which Israel does whatever it wants, could be affected by what happened on Saturday. That same Saturday, Netanyahu proclaimed that his country is involved in a war and not facing another military operation like those that occur periodically.

Hamas has demonstrated great military capacity that has surprised everyone. Netanyahu may feel pressure to release the prisoners Hamas has taken, that is, to give in to a swap that he has not wanted to make in recent years with the handful of hostages long held by Hamas.

With dozens of Israelis dead and prisoners, the situation is different. Hamas will probably try to lift the blockade of the Strip and there is no doubt that the Israeli authorities have to solve the problem in a short period of time, another circumstance that indicates that the false status quo is changing.

Eugenio Garcia Gascon has been a correspondent in Jerusalem for 29 years. He is a Cirilo Rodríguez journalism award winner.
EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON
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