Bibi Netanyahu's juggling act

4 min read EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON 0 comments

EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON

It is in Benjamin Netanyahu's interest to keep the various battlefronts he has open on hold in order to indefinitely prolong his mandate as the longest-serving prime minister. That means leaving unresolved military, political and judicial problems that wear him down but also help him survive.

Perhaps the most visible issue is the war, which is present in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. Netanyahu refuses to close these fronts as requested by the opposition and even various US officials who consider that such a varied portfolio does not favour Washington's policy in the Middle East.

Netanyahu knows that as long as the war is not over, there will be an important pretext to justify its continuation and the non-calling of elections. He repeatedly declares that the circumstances are not yet in place to proclaim the “total victory” that he promised the Israelis more than a year ago and which includes the complete disappearance of Hamas.

He says that the day after the war ends, Hamas should be absent from the Strip not only as a militia but also as a political entity. However, today the Islamic Resistance Movement maintains its influence in all territorial sectors of the Strip that the Israeli army has abandoned, and there is no indication that this situation will change soon.

The Islamists' resilience has surprised not only the Israeli political class but also the army and the intelligence services themselves. Few expected that Hamas would survive the complete destruction of the Strip and its decapitation, but since the day the army evacuation began in mid-January, its militants have reasserted their iron grip on devastated Gaza.

As long as Hamas is there, Netanyahu will not give up the war that he uses as a pretext to remain in power. For its part, Hamas insists that it does not intend to give up its power. Both enemies have entrenched themselves in opposing positions that for the moment exclude a negotiated solution.

But that is not the only front that he is not interested in closing, since Netanyahu has to go to the court that is trying him for various corruption cases several days a week. Here, too, he is delaying the progress of the trial as much as possible with a clearly obstructive attitude from his lawyers, who put up as many obstacles as possible.

Experts believe that this attitude will delay the trial for several years before the verdict is handed down. And it should not be forgotten that Netanyahu has an ace up his sleeve, since at the end of the day, when the trial is about to end, he will be able to quickly negotiate with the prosecution an exit from politics in exchange for not serving a prison sentence, a circumstance that pushes him to continue prolonging the process.

Another important issue concerns judicial reform. Netanyahu's relations with the Supreme Court are practically non-existent, to the point that just a few days ago he did not attend the solemn inauguration of its last president, Isaac Amit. In fact, the entire government was absent from the ceremony, as was recalled by the empty chairs reserved for ministers and the Knesset speaker, also from Likud, in the front row.

The Israeli Supreme Court has historically been of a progressive orientation, so there has been no shortage of occasions for friction with Netanyahu. The situation has become so tense that the judges and the government are constantly exchanging poisoned barbs through the press, a circumstance that undermines the prestige of the highest court.

The situation can be summed up as follows: the nationalist and religious right that Netanyahu defends, and which is growing in number every day, does not accept a progressive Supreme Court, arguing that Israeli society has changed and is becoming more nationalist and religious every day, an image that is not properly represented among the Supreme Court judges.

Another pending issue is the military recruitment of young religious students. The ultra-Orthodox sector has been absent from military service since the establishment of the state in 1948. It is a sector that has been growing since then and its rabbis refuse to allow their pupils to carry out military service in an environment considered immoral by many religious people.

The Gaza war has brought this issue to the fore, but there is no way to resolve it since the ultra-Orthodox party MPs would abandon the coalition if their wards were forced to join the army. Netanyahu's hands are tied here, and he continues to avoid the issue despite the urgency imposed by the Supreme Court and despite the fact that a large part of Israeli society is fed up and wants the ultra-Orthodox to participate in wars.

Another outstanding issue is the creation of a commission to investigate the errors and omissions of October 7, 2023, when Hamas entered Israel and killed 1.200 people, leading to the Gaza war. The opposition is demanding the formation of a state commission that would be under the aegis of the Supreme Court, while Netanyahu wants a government commission that would be under his control.

The prime minister is carefully navigating all fronts, with no interest in closing any of them, as that could mean the end of his career. The prime minister is very skilled and has been navigating the icebergs around him for years. How long can he continue? It is not an easy question to answer, although there is nothing to suggest that Netanyahu's fall from grace will be immediate.