Israel operates in Iran on a grand scale

3 min read EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON 0 comments

EUGENIO GARCIA GASCON

In 2017, during his first term, Donald Trump canceled the agreement that the Obama administration, against Benjamin Netanyahu's wishes, had reached a few months earlier with Tehran regarding its nuclear program. During those months, the prime minister made it clear that he would prevent Iran from accessing nuclear warheads by any means necessary.

Moreover, Netanyahu claimed that Iran was only a few months, or even a few weeks, away from acquiring the bomb, which has proven completely false. Eight years have passed since then, and the Islamic Republic still has the bomb. Moreover, its top leaders have always maintained that building one is not part of their plans, and they have kept their word.

But was Iran's policy of containment a mistake? Yes, it probably was, since if Tehran had the bomb, it seems very unlikely that Netanyahu would have entered Iran in such a manner, with such a vast and spectacular attack. He would have thought twice before bombing Iran with the brazenness he did this June. Iran's nuclear weapons would certainly have deterred Israel.

Tehran is a victim, and its refusal to possess nuclear weapons reflects the suffering that has characterized Shiites since the origins of Islam. Now it may be too late to correct course, as the Iranians had plenty of time—no less than eight years—to build the bomb, but they failed to do so, and now they simply have to resist the onslaught of Israel, and perhaps the United States.

One wonders how far Netanyahu will take this adventure. In his speech in English after the attack, he claims to be a friend of the Iranian people and an enemy of the Islamic regime, a slogan he has often chanted. But it's clear he's seeking regime change, and we don't know if the June attacks are just the beginning of a more complex process to remove the ayatollahs from power.

Netanyahu's situation is equally delicate, which is why he maintains pressure on the Gaza Strip. This pressure cannot be said to be applied as much to Hamas as to the 2,4 million Gazan civilians he keeps in suspense, driving them from one place to another through bombs and murder after having devastated the territory, as if he were waiting for Trump's green light to expel them forever.

The fact that he won't even allow a state commission to investigate the errors that led to October 7, 2023, speaks volumes about his strategy. The head of the army, the director of the Shin Bet secret services, and the defense minister have all resigned. Of all those responsible for the fiasco of 20 months ago, he is the only one still standing, and he shows no sign of wanting to step aside.

Netanyahu has chosen to rush forward, evading his responsibility, which is the responsibility of Israel's top leader. At every opportunity, he maintains that he made no mistake and that the guilty parties were the army chief, the defense minister, and the Shin Bet director, and no one can move him from that position.

The attack on Iran is a further step forward in its race to evade investigation. In that race, it has achieved two major successes in recent months: the relative normalization of Lebanon at the expense of Hezbollah, and the fall of the Syrian regime. It is still too early to know whether it now intends to put an end to the Islamic regime for good.

Such an objective presents countless challenges. Above all is the fact that Iran is a vast, deeply divided country. A coup d'état seems impossible, even though Iran is infiltrated by the Israeli secret services to an extent unknown to us. Israeli activities are numerous and occur even at the highest levels of the regime, as the recent attacks have demonstrated.

Iran's deep social and religious divide suggests that if a coup led by Israel and the United States takes place, the country's stability will be at risk. The Islamic regime, despite all its limitations, enjoys considerable support that could plunge the country into a bloody civil war.